Another Libertarian Predicts Civil War

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The great crisis investor Doug Casey joins the list of people who think America is headed for a civil war.

In recent interview about the 2016 presidential race he says the following:

Both sides are extremely antagonistic. People either hate Trump or they hate Hillary. It doesn’t matter who wins; the other side is going to be very, very unhappy. And with tensions already running high in the country, and racial, cultural and social clashes in the background, it almost feels like a civil war is in the cards for the US.

Of course, it seemed like we could have had a civil war back in the late 60’s and early 70’s, when there were not just a few, but thousands of bombings. Not just little riots, like in Ferguson and Baltimore, but conflagrations like in Watts, DC, and Detroit, where the National Guard was raking the ghetto with .50 cals.

But the country’s prosperity was still increasing in those days. Now we’re on the cusp of The Greater Depression. Things could get ugly.

Contrary to what most believe, the US hasn’t had a real civil war yet. The unpleasantness of 1861–65 was actually a war of secession. A civil war is one where two or more groups are vying for the control of the same government, as in Spain during the 30’s, between the fascists and the communists.

But this time in the US it could turn into a real civil war. I don’t know what form it would take, but a lot of things could be really tough going: economically, financially, politically, socially, militarily. Most important, there’s a cultural divide that’s arisen in the US.

I don’t think most people are even aware of what is going on. When you walk outside, the sun is shining. Children are still playing. You can go down to the Wal-Mart and buy cheap goods. Everything looks pretty good on the surface, despite the fact everyone’s credit card is maxed out. But I think it’s all a hologram that’s about to be exposed. So, hold on to your hat.

Gee, where have we heard this before?

Oh, yeah. Right here, nearly a year ago:

If you take away only one thing from what I’m about to write, let it be this: The United States of America has never had a civil war.

Regardless of how one feels about the War Between the States and the Confederacy, it was not a civil war. A civil war is fought by two factions for control over the same government or country. That is not what happened in the 1860s. The southern part of the “country” sought to break away and form its own nation. A war was fought to prevent this. Many believe, and they are correct, that before this we were a compact between states but the war forged us into one nation.

…. My speculation is this: That a close presidential election will be followed by the refusal from the losing candidate to accept the results. They might blame the loss on fraud or treachery or whatnot. But they will not accept the winner as legitimate. And they will force the issue. When the crisis occurs, the “either you are with us or with them” mentality will grip the whole country, and the factions will fall under their respective banners.

This is what happened in Spain during their civil war in the 1930s, and it can happen again.

Granted, Casey has made predictions in the past that didn’t pan out. In 1980 he anticipated another great depression that didn’t happen.

However, things have changed since then. The national debt wasn’t $19 trillion. The Fed hadn’t expanded the U.S. currency in a way that resulted in massive hyperinflation in Weimer Germany during the 1920s.

In other words, the United States government is running out of financial tricks to keep the charade going. The thing about delaying the inevitable is that you can postpone it for a long time, but at some point the Piper will come to collect his pay.

While I have long suspected the presidential election outcome could trigger some sort of conflict, like Casey I have no idea what it might look like. It might occur in such a low-level, indirect manner that most people won’t even recognize it as a war.

The takeaway is that regardless of how the country reacts to our next president, things can’t go on like this forever. There are too many divisions, too many differences, too much hatred and loathing of the various regions, for the Empire to remain intact peacefully. The only thing that keeps men peaceful are bread and circus distractions, false hopes of collecting government benefits when they retire, and general apathy about changing anything. As long as people have the illusion of prosperity, they won’t do anything.

How the country tries to resolve this, either through separation or massive upheaval, is anyone’s guess at this point. What troubles me is that many ruthless and harsh measures people think we’re above could easily be implemented, given the right circumstances.

Photo credit: Wiki Commons.

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3 Responses to Another Libertarian Predicts Civil War

  1. Gunner Q says:

    I don’t believe there will be a civil war because the conservative side is disorganized. Our institutions are hopelessly compromised and our leaders have been jaw-droppingly treacherous for decades. Would you kill and die on the orders of any sitting politician? Me neither. The immigration/refugee push will also serve to keep us disorganized (although I’m increasingly convinced the primary motive is the female fantasy of the noble savage). I predict vigilantes and small groups will be the worst of it.

    Generally speaking, if one tries to overthrow the current gov’t without having a replacement gov’t waiting then he’s just killing people… most of them heavily armed people who are paid to kill him first. Poor motivation.

    Here’s how I see it shaking out. A huge economic collapse is obviously coming, war or no war. The Elites know this like everybody else. They’ll take advantage of (orchestrate?) the crisis to impose a new, autocratic economic system while using women, Muslims and other useful idiots to keep us unfocused until our choices are reduced to economic slavery or economic nullity.

    That’ll be the point at which the Elites lose control because, contra their atheist convictions, man is not Homo Economicus.

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    • The Question says:

      The immigration/refugee push will also serve to keep us disorganized (although I’m increasingly convinced the primary motive is the female fantasy of the noble savage). I predict vigilantes and small groups will be the worst of it.

      Here’s how I see it shaking out. A huge economic collapse is obviously coming, war or no war. The Elites know this like everybody else. They’ll take advantage of (orchestrate?) the crisis to impose a new, autocratic economic system while using women, Muslims and other useful idiots to keep us unfocused until our choices are reduced to economic slavery or economic nullity.

      That’ll be the point at which the Elites lose control because, contra their atheist convictions, man is not Homo Economicus.

      I’m going to write a followup post on this, but this is exactly what I’m thinking of when I talk about a civil war. There’s clearly not going to be a conventional fight as in the past. There will be no armies or pitched battles. Like I said, it might be so low level people won’t realize it; they’ll see the conflict but fail to understand what is going on.

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  2. Greg Nikolic says:

    A Civil War requires ARMAMENTS, MATERIEL, WEAPONRY.

    The civil-war factor that would matter in the U.S. would be who would control the depots and caches of the Federal armed forces.

    And they would be, ahem, I believe Republicans. Take this comment for what it’s worth.

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