The great crisis investor Doug Casey joins the list of people who think America is headed for a civil war.
In recent interview about the 2016 presidential race he says the following:
Both sides are extremely antagonistic. People either hate Trump or they hate Hillary. It doesn’t matter who wins; the other side is going to be very, very unhappy. And with tensions already running high in the country, and racial, cultural and social clashes in the background, it almost feels like a civil war is in the cards for the US.
Of course, it seemed like we could have had a civil war back in the late 60’s and early 70’s, when there were not just a few, but thousands of bombings. Not just little riots, like in Ferguson and Baltimore, but conflagrations like in Watts, DC, and Detroit, where the National Guard was raking the ghetto with .50 cals.
But the country’s prosperity was still increasing in those days. Now we’re on the cusp of The Greater Depression. Things could get ugly.
Contrary to what most believe, the US hasn’t had a real civil war yet. The unpleasantness of 1861–65 was actually a war of secession. A civil war is one where two or more groups are vying for the control of the same government, as in Spain during the 30’s, between the fascists and the communists.
But this time in the US it could turn into a real civil war. I don’t know what form it would take, but a lot of things could be really tough going: economically, financially, politically, socially, militarily. Most important, there’s a cultural divide that’s arisen in the US.
I don’t think most people are even aware of what is going on. When you walk outside, the sun is shining. Children are still playing. You can go down to the Wal-Mart and buy cheap goods. Everything looks pretty good on the surface, despite the fact everyone’s credit card is maxed out. But I think it’s all a hologram that’s about to be exposed. So, hold on to your hat.
Gee, where have we heard this before?
If you take away only one thing from what I’m about to write, let it be this: The United States of America has never had a civil war.
Regardless of how one feels about the War Between the States and the Confederacy, it was not a civil war. A civil war is fought by two factions for control over the same government or country. That is not what happened in the 1860s. The southern part of the “country” sought to break away and form its own nation. A war was fought to prevent this. Many believe, and they are correct, that before this we were a compact between states but the war forged us into one nation.
…. My speculation is this: That a close presidential election will be followed by the refusal from the losing candidate to accept the results. They might blame the loss on fraud or treachery or whatnot. But they will not accept the winner as legitimate. And they will force the issue. When the crisis occurs, the “either you are with us or with them” mentality will grip the whole country, and the factions will fall under their respective banners.
This is what happened in Spain during their civil war in the 1930s, and it can happen again.
Granted, Casey has made predictions in the past that didn’t pan out. In 1980 he anticipated another great depression that didn’t happen.
However, things have changed since then. The national debt wasn’t $19 trillion. The Fed hadn’t expanded the U.S. currency in a way that resulted in massive hyperinflation in Weimer Germany during the 1920s.
In other words, the United States government is running out of financial tricks to keep the charade going. The thing about delaying the inevitable is that you can postpone it for a long time, but at some point the Piper will come to collect his pay.
While I have long suspected the presidential election outcome could trigger some sort of conflict, like Casey I have no idea what it might look like. It might occur in such a low-level, indirect manner that most people won’t even recognize it as a war.
The takeaway is that regardless of how the country reacts to our next president, things can’t go on like this forever. There are too many divisions, too many differences, too much hatred and loathing of the various regions, for the Empire to remain intact peacefully. The only thing that keeps men peaceful are bread and circus distractions, false hopes of collecting government benefits when they retire, and general apathy about changing anything. As long as people have the illusion of prosperity, they won’t do anything.
How the country tries to resolve this, either through separation or massive upheaval, is anyone’s guess at this point. What troubles me is that many ruthless and harsh measures people think we’re above could easily be implemented, given the right circumstances.
Photo credit: Wiki Commons.